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Surprise

CityThe kind of area this report covers. Neighborhood areas nest inside each other, from broad districts down to small pockets.ArizonaBuyer's market
Market temperatureA 0 to 100 score comparing this area with every similar area nationwide each month. 0 is the strongest buyer's market, 100 the strongest seller's market.Buyer's market · 37
Buyer's marketBalancedSeller's market
$411K
Median sale priceThe middle sale price each month, counting normal open-market sales. The average runs above the median when a few expensive sales pull it up. Bars show how many homes sold.
-8.3%
1-yr changeHow much prices and sales counts changed since the same time last year, using a 3-month average to smooth out noise. Above the dashed line means growth.
4,508
Sales (12 mo)How many homes sold here in the last 12 months. More sales make the other numbers more reliable.
$431K
Median valueThe middle estimated value of all homes here, not just the ones that recently sold.

Deed records through Jul 2026Counties take time to publish deeds, so the newest months can be incomplete and may shift as more records arrive.

Market Trends

Market temperature (0–100)How the 0 to 100 market score moved over time. It blends price growth, sales pace, how often homes change hands, and seller profits.Temperature
20162018201920202022202320252026
Sale pricesThe middle sale price each month, counting normal open-market sales. The average runs above the median when a few expensive sales pull it up. Bars show how many homes sold.MedianSales
20162018201920202022202320252026
Growth (year over year)How much prices and sales counts changed since the same time last year, using a 3-month average to smooth out noise. Above the dashed line means growth.PriceSales
20162018201920202022202320252026
Price per square footThe middle price per square foot, for sales where the size is known. It adjusts for homes being different sizes.$/ft²
20162018201920202022202320252026
Sale premium vs estimated valueHow sale prices compare with our estimated values at the time of sale. Above the dashed line, homes sold for more than the models expected — a sign of competitive bidding. Below it, buyers paid under model value.Premium
20162018201920202022202320252026
Annual turnover (share of homes sold)The share of all homes here that sold in the trailing 12 months. Higher turnover means a more liquid market where homes trade hands more often.Turnover
20162018201920202022202320252026
Buyer mixWho is buying. Cash means no mortgage was recorded, investor means the buyer looked like an investor, and flip means the home resold within a year.CashInvestorFlip resale
20162018201920202022202320252026
Financing (share of purchase price)For buyers who borrowed: the middle share of the price they financed, and the middle share they paid up front.Loan (LTV)Down payment
20162018201920202022202320252026
Sellers who sold at a gainThe share of sellers each month who sold for more than they originally paid.Sold at gain
20162018201920202022202320252026
Typical hold before sellingThe middle number of years sellers owned their home before selling.Median hold
20162018201920202022202320252026
Median annualized return at resaleThe middle yearly gain sellers earned, spread across the years they owned the home. Only counts homes held at least a year.Annualized gain
20162018201920202022202320252026
Preforeclosure filingsForeclosure notices filed each month. A rise can be an early sign that more owners are struggling. Auction stage counts the filings that reached a scheduled foreclosure auction.FilingsAuction stage
20162018201920202022202320252026

Housing Stock

HomesHow many homes we have records for in this area.68,284
Median value (AVM)The middle estimated value of all homes here, not just the ones that recently sold.$431K
Median sizeThe middle home size here, measured in square feet.1,918 ft²
Median bedroomsThe middle bedroom count for homes here.3
Median year builtThe middle build year for homes here. A recent year means most housing is newer.2004
Single familyThe share of homes here that are single-family houses.92%
CondosThe share of homes here that are condos.2.4%

Equity & Ownership

Equity rich (LTV ≤ 50%)The share of owners who owe half or less of what their home is worth, meaning they hold a lot of equity.50%
Underwater (LTV ≥ 125%)The share of owners who owe at least 25% more than their home is worth.1.4%
Owner occupiedThe share of homes lived in by their owner rather than rented out or left empty.73%
Company ownedThe share of homes owned by a company or trust instead of a person.26%
Median loan-to-valueThe middle share of home value still owed on loans across all owners here.50%
Typical ownership tenureHow long the typical owner here has held their home.6.8 yrs

CommunityThese are comparison scores, not percentages. 100 equals the national average, so 150 means about 50% above average.

CrimeLocal crime compared with the rest of the country, where 100 is average. It reflects things like population density, income, and how crime gets reported.57
Air pollutionOverall air pollution compared with the rest of the country, where 100 is average. Lower is cleaner.103
EarthquakeEarthquake risk and likely building damage compared with the rest of the country, where 100 is average. Scores can run far above 100.48

Index scale: 100 = US average (tick). Lower is better.

Homes occupiedThe share of homes here that someone lives in. The rest sit empty, including vacation and for-sale homes.90%
Bachelor's or higherThe share of adults 25 and older whose highest degree is a bachelor's degree.21%
Poverty rateThe share of people whose household income falls below the federal poverty line, which varies by family size.5.1%
UnemploymentThe share of men 16 and older who are out of work and actively looking. Only men are counted in this figure.0.8%
PopulationHow many people live in this area.152,447
DensityPeople per square mile. Higher numbers mean a more crowded, urban area.1,382 / mi²
Median household incomeThe middle household income here — half of households earn more, half earn less.$86K
Average household incomeThe average household income. It runs higher than the median when a few high earners pull it up.$106K
Average tempThe average temperature here across a full year.70°F
Annual precipHow much rain and melted snow falls here in a typical year.9 in
SunshineThe share of daylight hours that get direct sun in a typical year, counting cloud cover.86%

Market metrics are derived from recorded arms-length deeds and refreshed nightly. Temperature blends price momentum, sales velocity, turnover and resale outcomes, ranked against all citys nationally.

How Surprise compares

By median home value, Surprise is the 15th most expensive of 24 cities in Maricopa County, and its typical home is worth more than 42% of all homes in Maricopa County.

Home values in Surprise

Share of homes at each estimated value.

Median
$253K$879K
cities in Maricopa County ranked by median home value
#Maricopa CountyMedian valueHomes
1Paradise Valley$3.6M8,402
2Carefree$1.3M2,266
3Scottsdale$874K132,420
4Cave Creek$857K14,330
5Fountain Hills$677K13,644
6Queen Creek$663K30,132
7Gilbert$593K88,363
8Chandler$541K87,706
9Litchfield Park$540K15,428
10Wickenburg$517K5,383
11Peoria$490K72,939
12Goodyear$485K39,439
13Tempe$480K43,674
14Mesa$442K172,744
15Surprise$431K68,284
16Avondale$412K24,452
17Glendale$407K84,917
18Phoenix$404K394,533
19Tolleson$404K13,361
20Buckeye$400K45,772
21El Mirage$348K9,971
22Youngtown$303K2,301
23Guadalupe$244K1,046
24Gila Bend$202K644

About the Surprise market

What is the median home price in Surprise, AZ?

The median sale price in Surprise, AZ is $411,000 (data through July 2026), based on deeds recorded with the county. That is down 8.3% from a year earlier.

How many homes sell in Surprise, AZ each year?

4,508 homes sold in Surprise, AZ over the last 12 months (data through July 2026). TopHap counts recorded arm's-length deeds, not listings, so the figure is not affected by which brokerage handled the sale.

Is Surprise, AZ a buyer's or seller's market?

Surprise, AZ is currently a buyer's market, scoring 37 out of 100 on TopHap's market temperature index (data through July 2026). The score weighs sales velocity and price direction; above 60 favours sellers, below 40 favours buyers.

How many homes are there in Surprise, AZ?

Surprise, AZ contains 68,284 residential properties, with a median of 1,918 square feet, 3 bedrooms, built around 2004. The median TopHap Estimate is $431K.

How does Surprise, AZ compare to the rest of Maricopa County?

By median home value, Surprise, AZ is the 15th most expensive of 24 cities in Maricopa County. Its typical home is worth more than 42% of all homes in Maricopa County. Mesa ranks just above it and Avondale just below. The ranking is rebuilt nightly from the county assessor record of every home in each area.

Do people own or rent in Surprise, AZ?

73% of homes in Surprise, AZ are owner-occupied. 26% are held by a company rather than an individual.

How much equity do owners in Surprise, AZ hold?

50% of mortgaged homes in Surprise, AZ are equity-rich, meaning the loan balance is under half the home's value. 1.4% owe more than the home is worth.

Nearby markets

Browse addresses

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Explore Surprise on the map

See every recorded sale, price heat map, school zone and flood overlay across Surprise in TopHap’s interactive 3D map.

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