There are very few reference points that this generation of working Americans can view to give guidance in these uncertain times. The savings and loan crisis of the 90s is not very relevant. The dot.com bust of 2000? Nope. The post 9/11 market? No. Even if all of these offer some degree of wisdom, they’re just too different in market and societal environments to really offer any significant insights. This naturally leaves the big nasty: the 2008 crash. The bitter taste of this crisis is still fresh for most, and the similarities in environment are too great to ignore: years of increasing prices, get rich quick schemes abound, and my personal favorite, the “buy now or you’ll be priced out forever” frenzy that buyers of all levels felt. All three of these make the two markets of 2008 and today so similar that it’s almost impossible to avoid the basic question: are we heading for a real estate crash? The most honest answer right now is, not yet.
A crash right now is unlikely first and foremost because the reasons we saw an exploding market are not nearly the same. From 2006-2008, my dog could have gotten a loan for a 1 bed, 1 bath condo. In the years following the 2008 crash, getting a mortgage was no small matter. There were no stated income loans. You had to have a clear source of income, like a W2. Reasonable credit history was a must, and in the two years leading up to 2022, the lending market was all over the place. The real estate market skyrocketed in spite of this because the laws of supply and demand reigned supreme. That being said, those cautious souls among us still wonder if we’re in the midst of a slow moving, glacier-like crash right now. Once again, TopHap can help you figure that out no matter where you live.
The first thing you have to consider is Days on Market. This is a classic and easily understood indicator of how long homes are sitting waiting for a buyer. The more days a house sits, the more likely it is that the seller is in for a rude awakening when an offer finally hits home.
The second thing you have to consider is the Sold Vs List values. Some markets use listing price as a marketing tool by attracting potential buyers with unusually low listing prices. Other markets have sellers that really just want to get an offer to match the listing price. Both markets suffer in a correction as listing price and sold price invert with sold prices lower than listing prices. TopHap again makes this instantly accessible data.
Both of these clear indicators show that we are, at the very least, not in a crashing real estate market right now. This isn’t to say that we will never struggle again in the future, and when exactly that will be, who knows? For now, however, you can see that there are still robust markets that are delivering quality properties to buyers and reasonable prices to sellers, both of whom could benefit from the market data TopHap has to offer. Understand more, benefit more.
